Lost Toys.Uruguayan births lost by migrationin the period 1996-2010

Abstract

This article assesses the impact of international migration on the Uruguayan birth rate for the period 1996-2010, through the comparison of the observed births and the expected births in absence of migration. For this counterfactual exercise, it is assumed that fertility of females residing abroad would be equal to the fertility observed among the non-migrants. The birth rate of Uruguayan females residing in Spain and the United States between 2001 and 2011 is also estimated as a reference for assessing the magnitude of the birth losses. The loss of births due to migration is considerably important during the recent great out-migration (2001-2004 and 2006-2008), and the scars of mobility occurred in previous decades still could be observed among the cohorts that were in advanced reproductive ages during the late nineties.