What can we know about the very start of demographic change? An approach to Montevideo’s epidemiological transition in its early stages

Abstract

This article aims to identify elements that can be considered the first signs of mortality’s decline. In this light, the evolution of Montevideo’s mortality is studied, ranging from the colonial period to the second half of the nineteenth century. Mortality is analyzed in times of crisis and normality, and a study by causes of death is performed. An epidemiological analysis is made, standardizing the lists of causes of death in a classification that allows their interpretation in the context of epidemiological transition. The article combines both quantitative and qualitative sources: population censuses, parish records, town hall (“Cabildo”) and boards’ of Public Health documents, as well as medical literature of the time. The results align with the original expectation for this study: a high mortality level, with the fluctuating characteristics of pre-transitional mortality. However, aspects related to the shift of smallpox from epidemic to endemic, as well as increase in the relative weight of infectious non-epidemic diseases, put the pertinence of the question that titles this essay on the table.