Stochastic mortality projection. An application of Lee-Carter in Argentina

Abstract

The main objective of this article is to provide stochastic mortality projections for Argentina, and present the model and its interpretation. Currently available mortality projections were made about 10 years ago, with deterministic models. This stochastic mortality projection is based on the model developed by Lee and Carter in 1992 and used by a significant number of countries, institutions and authors. The study used data on deaths and population for the period 1980-2010, and then generated stochastically mortality tables projected to 2050. Also important methodological detail of the model, the interpretation of the estimates and the discussion on the impacts these may have on various fields.