Keywords
teenage pregnancy
demographic bonus
How to Cite
Abstract
Fertility levels in Latin America have sustained a decline trend that started by early seventies. Recent evidences suggest that the decline trend did not decelerate and stabilized at the replacement level. Adolescents’ fertility, whose rates where constant and relatively high until, say 2000, signals some decline. Given the young pattern of the fertility distribution and the awareness that, in general adolescent fertility is a social burden, one can expect meaningful changes in the teenagers’ reproductive behavior. If the average adolescent delays her age at maternity, the TFR will significantly fall in the short/medium run. Thus, fertility levels in Latin America will probably coincide with those predicted in the low variant UN hypothesis. A natural consequence of acute reduction in the size of new generations will be heavily felt when these generations enter the labor force to support the economy and the older dependent population. EDR will then growth proportionally more in 20 years time from now, assuming that fertility has felt as in the low variant hypotheses. Steeper fertility decline after 2000 will make the demographic bonus to stay longer, but the burden may be larger.
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