Keywords
Irregular Immigration
Title 42
COVID-19
Difference-in- Differences
How to Cite
Abstract
The objective of this study is to quantitatively assess the extent to which the implementation of Title 42 by the United States has influenced irregular migration through Mexico. The analysis draws on data from the National Institute of Migration concerning the detention of individuals in an irregular immigration status. Difference-in-differences models are estimated using both dichotomous and continuous treatments. The findings suggest that Title 42 may have contributed to an increase in irregular migration, particularly after two years of implementation and in Mexican municipalities located near the U.S.-Mexico border. A key limitation of the study is the simultaneity of Title 42 with the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have also induced substantial shifts in migration dynamics, thereby complicating efforts to isolate the specific effects of each factor.
References
U.S.C. § 265 (1944). Suspension of entries and imports from designated
places to prevent spread of communicable diseases. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2011-title42/html/USCODE-2011-title42-chap6A-subchapII-partG-sec265.htm
Blackburn, C. C. y Garrett, A. (2023). Examining the Impacts of Title 42 in the Rio Grande Valley, Texas: Perceptions from Stakeholders in
Immigrant Health and Wellbeing. Health Security, 21(3), 176-182. https://www.doi.org/10.1089/hs.2022.0162
Callaway, B., Goodman-Bacon, A. y Sant’Anna, P. H. (2024). Difference-indifferences with a continuous treatment (No. w32117). National
Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.doi.org/10.3386/w32117
Castillo, G. (2022). Migración centroamericana y procesos de contención territorial en la frontera sur de México. Revista Mexicana de
Ciencias Políticas y Sociales, 67(246), 239-266. https://www.doi.org/10.22201/fcpys.2448492xe.2022.246.80202
Castles, S. y Miller, M. J. (2009). The Age of Migration: International Population Movements in the Modern World. Palgrave Macmillan. https://www.doi.org/10.5565/rev/dag.262
CBP. Customs and Border Protection. (2019). MPP Guiding Principles. https://www.cbp.gov/document/guidance/migrant-protection-protocols
CBP. Customs and Border Protection. (2024a). Southwest Land Border Encounters (By Component). https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters-by-component
CBP. Customs and Border Protection. (2024b). Nationwide Enforcement Encounters: Title 8 Enforcement Actions and Title 42 Expulsions.
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcementstatistics/title-8-and-title-42-statistics
CIDH. Comisión Interamericana de Derechos Humanos. (2015). Derechos humanos de migrantes, refugiados, apátridas, víctimas de
trata de personas y desplazados internos: Normas y estándares del Sistema Interamericano de Derechos Humanos. http://www.oas.org/es/cidh/informes/pdfs/movilidadhumana.pdf
COMAR. Comisión Mexicana de Ayuda a Refugiados. (2024). Estadísticas Comisión Mexicana de Ayuda a Refugiados. https://www.gob.mx/comar/documentos/estadisticas-comar-2013-2017
Cornelius, W. A. y Salehyan, I. (2007). Does border enforcement deter unauthorized immigration? The case of Mexican migration to the
United States of America. Regulation & Governance, 1(2), 139-153. https://www.doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-5991.2007.00007.x
D’Haultfoeuille, X., Hoderlein, S. y Sasaki, Y. (2015). Nonlinear difference-in-differences in repeated cross sections with continuous treatments (No. CWP40/13). Cemmap Working Paper. https://faculty.crest.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2020/03/RCS_2015_03_11.pdf
Del Monte Madrigal, J. A. (2023). Securitización sanitaria y control migratorio fronterizo: el Título 42 en la frontera México-Estados Unidos. Frontera Norte, 35. https://www.doi.org/10.33679/rfn.v1i1.2325
Del Valle Gálvez, A. (2020). Immigration, human rights and the “European model” of borders: Conceptual proposals on “extraterritoriality”, “desterritoriality” and “externalization” of border controls and migration flows. Journal of Legal Studies and Criminology, 2, 145-210. https://doi.org/10.25267/REJUCRIM.2020.i2.07
Dobbin, F., Simmons, B. A. y Garrett, G. (2007). The global diffusion of public policies: Social construction, coercion, competition, or
learning? Annual Review of Sociology, 33, 449-472. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.33.090106.142507
Fernández-Rodríguez, N. y Freier, L. F. (2024). Latin American immigration and refugee policies: A critical literature review. Comparative Migration Studies, 12(15). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40878-024-00377-0
Frelick, B., Kysel, I. M. y Podkul, J. (2016). The impact of externalization of migration controls on the rights of asylum seekers and other migrants. Journal on Migration and Human Security, 4(4), 190-220. https://doi.org/10.1177/233150241600400402
Gammeltoft-Hansen, T. y Hathaway, J. C. (2015). Non-refoulement in a world of cooperative deterrence. Columbia Journal of Transnational Law, 53(2), 235-284. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2479511
Geddes, A. (2003). The Politics of Migration and Immigration in Europe. Sage Publications. INEGI. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. (2015). Encuesta Intercensal 2015. https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/intercensal/2015
INEGI. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. (2016). Marco Geoestadístico, junio 2016. https://www.inegi.org.mx/app/biblioteca/ficha.html?upc=702825217341
INEGI. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. (2020). Censo de Población y Vivienda 2020. https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/ccpv/2020/
INM. Instituto Nacional de Migración. (2025). Boletines estadísticos de la Dirección de Estadística de la Unidad de política migratoria, registro e identidad de personas. https://portales.segob.gob.mx/es/PoliticaMigratoria/Boletines_Estadisticos
Martínez, D. E., Chambers, S., Boyce, G. y Slack, J. (2024). Impeding Access to Asylum: Title 42 “Expulsions” and Migrant Deaths in Southern Arizona. Journal on Migration and Human Security, 12(3), 182-203. https://www.doi.org/10.1177/23315024241256642
Massey, D. S., Durand, J. y Malone, N. J. (2002). Beyond smoke and mirrors: Mexican immigration in an era of economic integration. Russell Sage Foundation. https://www.doi.org/10.5860/choice.40-2451
Médicos Sin Fronteras. (2021, mayo 4). Las deportaciones bajo el Título 42 causan graves consecuencias humanitarias en la frontera norte de México. https://www.msf.org.ar/actualidad/las-deportaciones-bajo-el-titulo-42-causan-graves-consecuencias-humanitarias-en-mexico/
Pew Research Center (2022). Key facts about Title 42, the pandemic policy that has reshaped immigration enforcement at U.S.-Mexico
SS. Secretaría de Salud. (2023). Información referente a casos COVID-19 en México. https://datos.gob.mx/busca/dataset/informacion-referente-a-casos-covid-19-en-mexico
TRAC. Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse. (2022). TRAC Immigration. Border Patrol Arrests. https://trac.syr.edu/phptools/immigration/cbparrest/
UPMRIP. Unidad de Política Migratoria, Registro e Identidad de Personas. (2023). Se registraron 2.7 millones de eventos de expulsión de personas bajo el Título 42, hasta febrero de 2023. https://www.gob.mx/segob/prensa/se-registraron-2-7-millones-de-eventos-de-expulsion-de-personas-bajo-el-titulo-42-hasta-febrero-de-2023
USCIS. United States Citizenship and Immigration Services. (2024). Asylum Processing Rule Cohort Reports. https://ohss.dhs.gov/topics/immigration/refugees-and-asylees/asylum-cohort#tabledata-heading
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2025 Rodrigo Carrillo